The general-population paternity-discrepancy rate is about 3.7%

The most-cited review of paternal discrepancy found a median rate of 3.7% (range 0.8–30%). The "10–30%" figure the manosphere quotes comes from samples of men who already doubted paternity and sought a test — not the general population.

The number

Pooling 17 studies, paternal-discrepancy rates ran "from 0.8% to 30%" with a median of 3.7% — the high end coming from men already selected for disputed paternity. ^[1]

Rates vary between studies from 0.8% to 30% (median 3.7%, n = 17).

— Bellis et al., Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health (2005)

^[1]

What it does and doesn't establish

Paternity misattribution is real but uncommon in the general population; modern genetic studies put extra-pair paternity even lower (~1–2%). The "10–30% paternity-fraud epidemic" is a selection-bias artefact of testing men who already suspected. Full context: is paternity fraud 10 to 30 percent?

Sources

1 source · all archived at publication

[1]Measuring paternal discrepancy and its public health consequences · Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health · 2005-09-01 archived ↗

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