False rape reports are roughly 2–8%, not 40–50%

Methodologically rigorous research converges on a false-report rate of about 2–8% (5.9% in the decade-long Lisak study) — far below the "40–50%" the manosphere cites, which conflates unproven cases with proven-false ones.

The number

Across methodologically rigorous studies, the rate of proven-false rape reports converges on roughly 2–8%. The most-cited US study, tracking a decade of reports, put it at 5.9%. ^[1]

Of the 136 cases of sexual assault reported over the 10-year period, 8 (5.9%) are coded as false allegations.

— Lisak et al., Violence Against Women (2010)

^[1]

What it does and doesn't establish

The 40–50% figures the manosphere cites come from counting unproven, withdrawn or police-"unfounded" cases as if they had been proven false — a category error. False accusations are real and can seriously harm the wrongly accused, but they are uncommon. Full context: how common are false rape accusations?

Sources

1 source · all archived at publication

[1]False Allegations of Sexual Assault: An Analysis of Ten Years of Reported Cases · Violence Against Women · 2010-12-01 archived ↗

By The Fieldnote Desk · How we verify · Corrections